Is there a recession coming??

I’ve heard so many pundits talking about the inverted yield curve and how it’s a sign of a looming recession. Basically investors can earn more from US treasury bonds over the short term vs the long term. Historically that has been a key indicator that a recession is looming. This happened in 2005 but the US economy didn’t really start to suffer until 2007.

Is this time around different? I honestly don’t think so. Closures in retail left and right, a student loan crisis, unattainably high real estate prices, continual lowering of the Federal Funds rate, economic uncertainty with China and our stubborn president… Reductions in shipping and manufacturing, a glut of oversupply in the automotive market.

For the record I’m in the camp of people who thinks we are due for a market correction and some type of economic recession. Will it be as bad as the late 2000s? Who knows for sure. What I do know is that I’ve been down that path before. https://apple.news/Am2QtY5VxTC2qllXbXWOumw

I was a student during the last two major economic blows in this country. A student with no real money in the marketplace and still operating with a certain naivety from my Gen X and Baby Boomer educators who were indeed able to live the dream on a working person’s salary. My situation today is quite different.

I’m not quite debt free, but between my contribution and my employer, $1600+ goes into my 401k each month. That’s not including a neglected Roth IRA with Betterment that I am presently lacking ample cash flow to fully fund alongside my other short-term obligations. If anything it’s in my favor for the market to go down, that way I can buy more shares of the total stock market index. (FSKAX) at extremely low expense ratios and a higher probability of asset appreciation.

Within a year god willing I will free up some cash flow. $545/mo on a car gone, $129/mo on a car warranty gone, $55/mo for a cell phone gone. That’s $729/mo. for me to live on, use to travel, build up my emergency fund, potentially save towards the down payment on real estate should the right opportunity come along. As I get older and see where each of my dollars is really going, it’s a wake up call how much things depreciate.

I still am staying the course with investing. I get the tax benefit now, it’s great to use compounding to build up a nest egg, a declining market allows me to buy equities at a “discount”, there is an annual limit on how much I can put in a 401k annually, and I have no plans to retire in the next couple years. If anything it’s more like 14 to be retirement optional in 2035.

2008 me invested in penny stocks such as DPDW, which I bought right as it peaked and lost about 50% of my hard earned cash on. I also owned shares of companies like Apple but got too skittish with each and every company announcement, press release, etc. I doubt I will ever buy single stocks again unless I have a huge surplus of cash laying around.

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